Capital Goods, Energy
Q-Series Redux: EU energy crisis: a boost or a bottleneck for energy transition?
斗牛棋牌在线 Research explores the implications for energy transition as the EU and US announce policy changes to tackle the current energy crisis.
Potentially far-reaching implications on the global energy environment
Potentially far-reaching implications on the global energy environment
The global energy crisis, exacerbated by the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, is likely to have a wide range of implications for the global economies, across industries, households, and transportation. The current crisis has prompted several short- and mid鈥恡erm responses, new policies from governments, as well as an increased emphasis on the ways to reduce the risk of future disruptions and promote energy security in the long term.
In our previous Q-Series, we noted that energy transition could drive incremental capex needs of $2.5-3tn p.a. through 2050. In this report we explore what the current energy crisis could mean for energy transition.
Two-thirds of Russian gas could be replaced by sustainable sources by 2030
Two-thirds of Russian gas could be replaced by sustainable sources by 2030
Russia supplied 160bcm of natural gas to Europe in 2021. As per Aurora Research, "clean" substitutes could replace two-thirds of Europe's Russian gas dependence by 2030 which include:
- Accelerated renewables rollout (estimate 950GW of additional wind+solar capacity, vs REPowerEU target of 1,069GW),
- Biomethane (expect 35bcm/year of biomethane production by 2030, 32bcm higher than 2021鈥檚 production, in line with REPowerEU targets),
- Hydrogen (expect c10Mt of renewable hydrogen by 2030, at only 50% of REPower EU target), and
- Increased electrification energy efficiency (REPowerEU鈥檚 targets are likely to lead to a reduction on total energy demand).
Despite the above measures, we believe that there could be around 33bcm of gas deficit in Europe in 2023, and close to 70bcm in 2024. This deficit could be bridged by a temporary increase in coal power and lower energy demand (through increased efficiencies) in households and industry.
Crisis likely to boost investments in renewables, electrification, efficiency
Crisis likely to boost investments in renewables, electrification, efficiency
The current crisis has also increased an emphasis on energy security and energy independence. Energy transitions offer the chance to build a safer and more sustainable energy system that reduces exposure to fuel price volatility and brings down energy bills. Which is why we believe that the current crisis could act as an accelerator to the global energy transition.