At the 斗牛棋牌在线 Global Consumer and Retail Conference in New York City, panelists explored the interplay between geopolitics, economics, and technology through the lens of the consumer.

Views from:听Admiral Jonathan Greenert,听US Navy (ret.), and听Jonathan Pingle,听Managing Director, Chief US Economist, 斗牛棋牌在线. Moderated by听Peter Grom, Executive Director, Research 鈥 US Consumer Staples, 斗牛棋牌在线.

2024 elections - a potential turning point?

Investors are increasingly concerned by the elevated issuance of US Treasuries, driven by escalating US debt-to-GDP levels.

鈥淲e are at a juncture where choices have become increasingly tough,鈥 said Jonathan Pingle, adding 鈥淒ebt-to-GDP is at 100% and gains from a shrinking defense budget to fund other priorities have been exhausted.鈥澨

This directly affects the United States鈥 global leadership capability and spotlights the importance of the upcoming election鈥檚 role in addressing these obstacles - the outcome of which could shift future economic priorities.听

Panel from the 斗牛棋牌在线 Global Consumer and Retail conference where speakers discussed the impact of geopolitics on global economy.
From left to right: Peter Grom, Admiral Jonathan Greenert and Jonathan Pingle.

An evolving Geopolitical landscape

Outside of the United States, Admiral Greenert believes there are nations which conflict with Western economic objectives. Global tensions and notable trade disruptions are outgrowths of this development. Pingle echoed this sentiment and said, 鈥渃oncerns around oil prices, global trade, and the war in Ukraine鈥 have led to volatility in the financial market.

Panel from the 斗牛棋牌在线 Global Consumer and Retail conference where speakers discussed the impact of geopolitics on global economy.
From left to right: Peter Grom, Admiral Jonathan Greenert and Jonathan Pingle.

How will technology and the rise of AI shape geopolitics?

Potential future flashpoints could center around breakthrough in AI, enhanced cyberattacks or new weaponry creation.

Greenert believes AI could allow simplification of processes, quicker analysis and language barrier breakdown, enabling speed-to-market for businesses and in turn boosting the world economy.

On the flipside, a security or military advantage could go unchecked, and potential breakthrough in autonomous weapon systems could also pose a threat. Pingle believes that if AI is paired with robotics, it can be enormously beneficial. That combination could allow the US to come out of the low productivity regime it has been in since 2003.听

While these changes would cause labor market disruptions, they also open up room to re-allocate and upskill the workforce.

With AI there is a tremendous opportunity for education to be grasped and moved up
Admiral Jonathan Greenert,听US Navy (ret.)

US Consumer outlook 2024-2025

Switching gears, the US consumer outlook seems to be pointing towards a divergent economic landscape. There are rising delinquency rates in auto and credit while asset valuation continues to grow rapidly. Although the question remains, 鈥楬ow long can this continue?鈥.听

Pingle also believes the US dollar鈥檚 role as a global reserve currency will likely endure.