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Gold has been the standout performer of 2025 so far. Purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have increased recently alongside ongoing central bank demand, supporting the precious metal. While our forecast stands at USD 3,500/oz at present, if US political uncertainty extends further, leading to greater demand for perceived “safe havens,” we believe gold could rise toward our upside risk case (i.e., adverse macro scenario) of USD 3,800/oz.

Silver often trades like a growth-sensitive version of gold. While it does not benefit directly from central bank purchases, it gains from lower Fed rate expectations, reduced real US yields, and signs of stronger global industrial production. Industrial application demand for silver could struggle in the near term, but we expect investment demand to improve and support prices. Deeper rate cuts than expected would also provide broad support for silver. We see higher prices ahead given lower opportunity costs and a weaker US dollar over time, expecting silver to reach USD 36-38/oz by year-end. Investors can consider selling the downside price risks in silver for yield pickup.

Capital preservation strategies. In equities, investors can consider capital preservation strategies, combining a zero-coupon bond with a call option to limit losses while maintaining exposure to potential gains. Still high interest rates make the bond component cheaper, but highervolatility may increase call option costs. As volatility could rise further amid trade tensions, budget negotiations, and growth concerns, investors should be aware of these higher costs. To mitigate them, investors might opt for longer-duration options or enter positions during lower volatility periods to secure lower costs.